ROI analysis of apartment in AXIS RESIDENCES 5: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD data, AXIS RESIDENCES 5 is located in Nadd Hessa and is part of the Silicon Oasis master project. A total of 72 apartment sale transactions have been recorded for this building over the entire observation period, which confirms the reliability of conclusions at the building level. There is also data on a number of rental contracts, so an assessment is available for both categories.

2. Analysis of transaction volume and liquidity

Apartment transactions have been recorded in almost every quarter in recent years, with peak activity in 2022 (especially in Q2 — 23 deals) and a steady presence in each of the last eight quarters. This indicates good market liquidity for the project: buyers have been consistently considering this building for purchase.

3. Purchase price dynamics and comparison with the area

Average price per square metre dynamics for the building:
— In 2020–2021, transactions were concluded in the range of 3,700–5,300 AED/m², with an anomalous spike in a single quarter up to 12,770 AED/m² (most likely a one-off non-standard unit).
— In 2022–2023, the average price stabilised in the 4,100–5,500 AED/m² range, then started to grow: in Q1 2024 it reached 6,330 AED/m², in Q2 — 7,855 AED/m², and in Q3–Q4 fluctuated around 7,300 AED/m².
— Over the last 12 months, the average purchase price in the building has been around 7,370 AED/m².

For comparison, in Nadd Hessa (apartments only) the current level is significantly higher: the average price over the last 12 months is 14,285 AED/m², and by quarters since 2024 the area has been in the 8,500–11,700 AED/m² range and above, with a notable jump in the most recent periods to 13,753–15,476 AED/m².

Thus, AXIS RESIDENCES 5 remains one of the most budget-friendly buildings in the area, offering prices significantly below the local average (a discount of around 40–50%).

4. Market rents and yield dynamics

Rental data for the last 12 months:
— Actual average rate in the building (without filtering by number of bedrooms, as there is no separate statistic for 2-bedroom units) is 769 AED/m² per year.
— In Silicon Oasis and Nadd Hessa, rents are slightly lower: 735 AED/m² per year.

Historically, back in 2020–2021 the average rental rate in the building was about 380–470 AED/m² per year, followed by a gradual increase: in 2022 the average rate rose above 400 AED/m², in 2023 — above 500 AED/m², and in 2024 exceeded 570–630 AED/m². The latest annual and quarterly figures confirm an overall increase in rental demand and the market’s acceptance of the new pricing levels.

5. Gross ROI and investment fairness of the price

Actual yield (gross ROI) based on the average purchase price (7,370 AED/m² over the last 12 months) and average rent (769 AED/m² per year):
— Rough calculation: ROI_brutto for the building = 769 / 7,370 ≈ 10.4%.

Adjustment to net yield taking into account initial costs (7–8%):
— ROI_net for the building ≈ 10.4% / 1.07 ≈ 9.7%.

For the wider area and master project, similar calculations show a significantly lower yield due to the higher average price:
— For the area, ROI_brutto ≈ 735 / 14,285 ≈ 5.1%. Net — about 4.8%.

6. Fair market price range for the target yield

To achieve 7–8% annual yield in this building, the “investment fair price” range is as follows:
— Lower bound: 769 / 0.08 = 9,613 AED/m²,
— Upper bound: 769 / 0.07 = 10,986 AED/m².

The actual current transaction average is 7,370 AED/m², meaning the building is noticeably cheaper than the threshold at which yield would fall to 8% per annum: it can be purchased with a yield buffer above market expectations. An investor would only need a minor premium to the current price to reach a 7–8% annual return.

7. Conclusions on liquidity and outlook

Against the backdrop of Nadd Hessa, AXIS RESIDENCES 5 remains one of the most affordable buildings in terms of price, while maintaining a high yield level for a rental-focused investor. Transaction volume is stable, rental demand is rising, which additionally protects against liquidity risk. Over a 3–5 year horizon, given the spread between the building’s price and the wider area, there is potential for this gap to narrow due to the gradual revaluation of budget complexes in Silicon Oasis, while the current return exceeds the average market level for Dubai.

Key takeaways:
— AXIS RESIDENCES 5 is a liquid and attractive investment asset with strong yield potential at the current price level.
— The building’s ROI is significantly higher than the area average: consistently strong tenant demand can be expected.
— For investors, an optimal purchase corridor would even include a premium to the current price — within 10,000 AED/m² the yield remains comfortable.
— The building retains a substantial attractiveness buffer versus the area benchmark; its current position can be considered favourable both for acquisition and for a quick exit if required.

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