ROI analysis of apartment in Address The Bay: DLD data and real deals — 26.11.2025

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD, the building Address The Bay is located in the Marsa Dubai area (Dubai Harbour master project). The building name fully matches the one stated in the transaction database.

Data volume and structure: The DLD database records 641 sale transactions for apartments of the Flat/Residential category in this building over the entire history. There is no rental data in DLD directly for Address The Bay yet. For the analysis of rental rates and yields, we used aggregates for the Dubai Harbour master project and the Marsa Dubai area.

2. Sale price dynamics and levels

Transaction dynamics for Address The Bay:

– The first spike in transactions was recorded in Q3 2022 (276 deals, average price per m² 34,600–35,400 AED).
– Subsequently, the average price per square meter in the building increased and reached peak levels: by Q1–Q2 2023 — approximately 38,970–42,500 AED/m² (with a moderately high number of transactions).
– Over the last 12 months, the weighted average transaction price in Address The Bay amounted to 39,018 AED per m².
– Area-wide price dynamics: In Marsa Dubai, the price per m² in 2023–2024 is significantly lower: the area average over the last 12 months is 27,250 AED per m².
– Over the last 4 quarters, the price range in Address The Bay has consistently been 35–45% higher than in Marsa Dubai as a whole. The premium versus the area is confirmed across all quarterly data.

3. Rental rate dynamics and levels

– There are no recorded rental contracts for Address The Bay (per DLD).
– Within the Dubai Harbour master project, over the last 12 months the average annual rental rate for apartments amounted to 2,084 AED per m² (almost 2,100 AED/m²).
– Across Marsa Dubai as a whole, the rate is lower: around 1,300 AED/m² per year.
– Over the last 3 years, rents in Dubai Harbour have been steadily growing and exceeding the wider area. The highest number of transactions falls in 2024–2025, indicating rising liquidity in the rental segment of the master project.

4. Yield and “fair price” calculation (ROI)

– For Address The Bay:
– Price per m² (last 12 months): 39,018 AED.
– Justified rental rate taken from Dubai Harbour: 2,084 AED/m²/year.
– Approximate gross ROI for a new investor is 5.3% per annum: (2084 / 39018).
– After accounting for mandatory entry costs (DLD + agency fee + technical costs ≈ 7%), net ROI falls to about 4.9–5.0% per annum.
– Fair price range per m² for a target yield of 7–8%:
– For an 8% yield: fair = 2,084 / 0.08 ≈ 26,050 AED/m².
– For a 7% yield: fair = 2,084 / 0.07 ≈ 29,770 AED/m².
– The current Address The Bay market level per DLD is noticeably above these benchmarks. To achieve 7–8% per annum including costs, an investor must either rent above market or buy at a 20–30% discount to current transaction levels.
– For the Marsa Dubai area (if focusing only on typical buildings in the area), gross ROI is ≈ 4.8% per annum (1,300 / 27,250).

5. Liquidity assessment and outlook

– By number of transactions, Address The Bay is among the most liquid new projects in the area — both primary sales and resales are consistently active.
– In the Dubai Harbour master project there has been high rental market activity since 2023 (dozens to hundreds of new contracts per quarter) and a strong premium in rental rates versus standard buildings in the area.
– Buying in Address The Bay is justified for those who are betting on the long-term premium of Dubai Harbour, limited new supply and the prestige of the asset (natural price and rental premium).
– From an investment standpoint, Address The Bay is 35–45% more expensive than a typical Marsa Dubai apartment. Actual net yield based on current market transactions is about 5%, which is typical for prime addresses. Achieving 7–8% would require a substantial discount to current prices.

Conclusions

– The dynamics for Address The Bay (and Dubai Harbour overall) are stable: high prices per m², a premium versus the wider area, and growing rental liquidity.
– At current market prices, investor yield is 5.0% net, below the classic “target” 7–8%. To reach higher yields, a substantial discount is required, or a bet on future capital appreciation/rent growth.
– The building and area are attractive for long-term capital and for own use, but it is unlikely to achieve yields above 5–5.5% without a significant discount or reallocating into less prime projects in the area.
– For short-term investors or those seeking high yields, Address The Bay is not the optimal risk/return choice in the Marsa Dubai market.