1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: The building 23 MARINA is fully identified in the DLD database as being located in the Marsa Dubai area and is part of the Dubai Marina master project. All further comparisons will be made specifically with this area and master project, without assumptions.
For 23 MARINA, the database contains a substantial volume of data for both sales and rental transactions. Over the past 12 months, 74 valid rental contracts have been registered (annual rent per m²), which provides a sufficient base for rental statistics. At the Dubai Marina master-project level, for the same period there were more than 11,000 contracts.
2. Market dynamics for the building and the area
Liquidity and transaction volume
In total, 306 apartment sale transactions have been recorded for 23 MARINA. However, for 1-bedroom apartments (1 b/r), there have been no transactions in recent years in the export data, or their share was too small to build a separate time series. Therefore, average values and price dynamics are given at the level of the entire building (for all units of the Flat type).
Purchase price dynamics per m² (23 MARINA vs Dubai Marina)
The 23 MARINA market has shown a steady increase in the average price per m² over 2020–2024:
– Early 2020: around 6,300–8,300 AED/m².
– By the end of 2021: 9,500–11,200 AED/m².
– 2022: further growth to 10,200–11,200 AED/m².
– In 2023 the average price moved up to 12,000–12,700 AED/m².
– The last four quarters of 2024: in the range of 12,100–13,800 AED/m².
The average price for the building over the past 12 months is about 14,644 AED/m².
For comparison, across the entire Dubai Marina master project, the average price per m² for the same period is about 21,633 AED/m². Thus, apartments in 23 MARINA are on average 32% cheaper than in the area as a whole.
Rental price dynamics per m² (23 MARINA vs Dubai Marina)
23 MARINA has demonstrated a stable positive trend in rental rates:
– At the start of 2020: 550–630 AED/m² per year.
– During 2022: in the range of 670–775 AED/m².
– In 2023: steady growth to 800–870 AED/m².
– The last four quarters of 2024: 870–961 AED/m².
The average annual rent per m² over the past 12 months for 23 MARINA is 953 AED/m².
For Dubai Marina, the average annual rent per m² over the past 12 months is 1,253 AED/m² (i.e. rental rates in 23 MARINA are 24% lower than the area average).
3. ROI and investment attractiveness
Yield calculation
– Average price per m² for 23 MARINA over the past 12 months: 14,644 AED/m².
– Average annual rent per m²: 953 AED/m².
– Brutto ROI for the building: 953 / 14,644 ≈ 6.5% per annum.
For Dubai Marina:
– Average price: 21,633 AED/m²
– Average rent: 1,253 AED/m²
– Area ROI: 1,253 / 21,633 ≈ 5.8% per annum.
Adjustment for entry costs (taxes, commissions, registration ~7–8% on top of purchase price):
– Net ROI for the building: 6.5% / 1.07 ≈ 6.1% (a range widening to 6.0–6.1% taking expenses into account).
– For Dubai Marina: approximately 5.4–5.5%.
Fair purchase price range to target a 7–8% annual ROI:
– For 23 MARINA: fair price per m² = 953 / 0.08 = 11,900 AED (point at 8%), 953 / 0.07 = 13,600 AED (point at 7%).
– The actual average price (14,644 AED/m²) is currently 8–23% above this range.
– For Dubai Marina: fair price is 15,662–17,900 AED/m² versus the actual 21,633 AED/m² (market price is 21–38% higher than the 7–8% yield range).
This means that entering 23 MARINA today at a 7–8% yield is only possible with a discount to the current market average.
4. Overall assessment of liquidity and potential
The transaction volume for the building is stable, and the base of active landlords and tenants is sufficiently large. The building is in demand, but its price segment is noticeably below the area’s average, which can be both an advantage (for tenants and buyers with a limited budget) and a drawback for sellers targeting the premium segment of Dubai Marina.
Price and rental growth over the 2020–2024 horizon has been quite significant (prices per m² have doubled in 4 years, rents have increased by 50–70%). But the current brutto ROI is below the 7–8% threshold, especially taking into account acquisition costs, and for new investors, entering at the target yield range requires a discount to current prices.
5. Conclusions and outlook
23 MARINA remains a liquid segment of Dubai Marina for tenants and investors who value a relatively low entry price point. At the same time, buying at current prices will deliver a yield below the desired 7–8% (net), and to reach such a yield level one needs to negotiate 8–23% below average transaction prices. Market demand and transaction frequency confirm the resilience of this segment, but the area’s growing premium positioning increasingly intensifies competition from new/more expensive projects, where both prices and rents are even higher.
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