1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to the DLD database, the Gardenia Livings building is located in Al Barshaa South Third, within the Arjan master project. The database contains 264 transactions for this building, which allows for a full quantitative analysis. For comparison and benchmark building, the Arjan master project was used as the most accurate location-based reference level. The analysis includes both sales and rentals.
2. Transaction frequency and price dynamics
The transaction timeline shows that sales in Gardenia Livings started in Q2 2022 and developed rapidly, which is typical for new projects at launch stage:
– The sales peak occurred in Q3 2022 (78 transactions), after which the transaction volume gradually declined.
– Over the past 12 months, 66 transactions have been recorded in the building, which is a sufficiently high level of liquidity for a small new project.
Average price per m² dynamics for the building:
– At the start of sales in 2022, the average price per m² was about 9,700–11,000 AED per m².
– In 2023, there was a confident increase: average values were around 12,000–12,200 AED.
– Over the past 12 months, the average price amounted to 12,219 AED per m².
– Overall, the building demonstrates a stable positive price trend since entering the market.
Comparison with the Arjan master project:
– Over the past 12 months, the average price per m² in Arjan (for all apartment sales) was 15,167 AED, which is 24% higher than in Gardenia Livings.
– In general, the dynamics in Arjan are also positive: in 2020–2021 average values fluctuated in the range of 8,500–11,200 AED, and in 2023–2024 they increased to 13,000–15,800 AED.
Conclusion: At the moment, apartments in Gardenia Livings are selling noticeably cheaper than the Arjan average, despite the fact that the building is new and liquidity is high.
3. Rental and yield analysis
Rent (Gardenia Livings):
– Over the past 12 months, 81 rental contracts have been registered; the sample size is sufficient for weighted-average estimates.
– The average annual rental rate in Gardenia Livings amounted to 1,083 AED per m².
Rent (Arjan benchmark):
– The average rental rate per m² for the Arjan master project over the same period is 981 AED, with a massive volume (9,703 contracts).
– Over the past three years, quality rentals in Arjan have been steadily growing: from 550–650 AED in 2020–2022 to 830–960 AED in 2024–2025.
Quarterly rental dynamics for the building (2024):
– Q1 2024: 1,016 AED/m²
– Q2 2024: 1,054 AED/m²
– Q3 2024: 1,058 AED/m²
– Q4 2024: 1,121 AED/m²
4. ROI and fair price assessment
ROI calculation (based on the annual average price per m² over the past 12 months):
– For Gardenia Livings:
– Gross ROI ≈ 1,083 / 12,219 ≈ 8.9%
– For Arjan (as a reference):
– Gross ROI ≈ 981 / 15,167 ≈ 6.5%
Adjustment to Net ROI (taking into account transaction costs of ~7% at entry):
– For Gardenia Livings: Net ROI ≈ 8.9% / 1.07 ≈ 8.3%
– For Arjan: Net ROI ≈ 6.5% / 1.07 ≈ 6.1%
Fair price range for an investor at a target yield of 7–8%:
– Gardenia Livings: fair range = 1,083 / 0.08 … 1,083 / 0.07 = 13,538 – 15,471 AED/m².
– Comparison: the current average of 12,219 AED/m² is below this range. This means that at the current price the actual yield is higher than the market target for similar assets, and there is no need for an additional discount for the investor.
– For Arjan as a whole, the comparable range is 12,263–14,014 AED/m², which is closer to current market sale values.
5. Conclusions and outlook
– Liquidity in Gardenia Livings is very high for a project of its scale — both in terms of sales and rental contracts.
– The dynamics of both sale prices and rental rates are positive, with particularly strong growth rates recorded in 2023–2024.
– The current price level in Gardenia Livings is about 24% below the Arjan benchmark, while the yield (Gross ROI) according to DLD data even exceeds 8%, which is above the district average.
– If the current trend of rising rental rates continues, a significant price decline for the building over the next year appears unlikely.
– For an investor, Gardenia Livings currently offers a balanced entry point: apartments are selling noticeably below the district average, while rentals provide a yield above 8%.
– In the long term (3–5 years) — assuming sustained rental demand and current rate levels — the asset remains attractive for investment, especially when purchased at a discount to the district’s average price.
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