ROI analysis of apartment in VICTORIA RESIDENCY: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: according to DLD, transactions for VICTORIA RESIDENCY are registered in Jabal Ali First, master project Al Furjan. The main filter for the analysis is sales of 2-bedroom apartments (2BR, “2 b/r”) in VICTORIA RESIDENCY.

The sales table records 60 transactions for this type of apartment, which confirms a sufficient data set for a building-level analysis. There are no 2BR lease contracts in this building in DLD, nor across the entire Al Furjan master project; therefore, a detailed rental comparison is only possible at the Jabal Ali First district level.

2. Sales volume and dynamics

For VICTORIA RESIDENCY, 2BR transactions have been recorded since 2020, with a noticeable surge in activity from 2023 onwards:

– In 2023 — 27 transactions for 2BR (by quarter: 11 in Q1, 1 in Q2, 9 in Q3, 6 in Q4).
– From 2024 — turnover remains high: 9 deals in Q1, 3 in Q2, 1 in Q3 (data is updated in real time).

This indicates high liquidity for the asset: sales are regular, and there is steady demand for 2-bedroom units.

For comparison, in Jabal Ali First (2BR): the sample size is huge — thousands of transactions every quarter. This confirms strong market activity and liquidity in the “apartments in new Al Furjan developments” segment.

3. Average price per m² dynamics for VICTORIA RESIDENCY 2BR

Quarterly average price per square metre:

– From 2023 to 2024 the price has been rising quite sharply:
– 2023 Q1: 7,089 AED/m²,
– 2023 Q4: 8,532 AED/m²,
– 2024 Q1: 10,354 AED/m²,
– last 12 months (July 2023 – June 2024): average 12,475 AED/m².

The increase from early 2023 to the current level exceeds 40%. The latest units sold in 2024 are above 12,000 AED/m², indicating a clear upward trend in pricing.

For comparison, the dynamics for Jabal Ali First (2BR) are as follows:
– 2023 Q1: 8,851 AED/m²,
– 2023 Q4: 10,502 AED/m²,
– 2024 Q1: 11,174 AED/m²,
– Last 12 months: average 16,889 AED/m² (a very wide range, likely including transactions in premium projects, which pushes the district average higher).

VICTORIA RESIDENCY has been significantly cheaper than the wider market up to 2023–2024, then has been catching up quickly, but still lags behind district averages. In absolute terms, apartments here are selling roughly 25–30% below the district average over the last 12 months.

4. Rental market and current yield level

For VICTORIA RESIDENCY and the entire Al Furjan master project, DLD does not show valid rental contracts for 2BR units, so the calculation of an average rental rate is only possible at the Jabal Ali First district level (for apartments overall).

Analysis of DLD contracts confirms a massive rental market: more than 148,000 contracts in the district.

The average annual rental rate in Jabal Ali First over the last 12 months across all apartments is about 873 AED/m²/year. Over the past year there has been a stable upward trend in rents: from ~710 AED/m² (2023 Q4) to ~800+ AED/m² (2024 Q2–Q3).

5. ROI, fair value, recommendations

Actual gross ROI by district: the current average rental rate (873 AED/m²/year) divided by the latest market prices per m² for VICTORIA RESIDENCY and for the district:

– For VICTORIA RESIDENCY over the last 12 months: ROI_brutto ≈ 873 / 12,475 = 7.0%
– For Jabal Ali First: ROI_brutto ≈ 873 / 16,889 = 5.2%

Net yield (taking into account all initial transaction costs of about 7–8% of the price): for the building — around 6.5–6.7% per annum. This is an indicative yield estimate for an investor buying today and renting out at current market rates.

Fair price range for an investor targeting 7–8% per annum:
– District: fair price for 7–8% — from 10,913 to 12,471 AED/m².
– The current price level in VICTORIA RESIDENCY corresponds to the lower boundary of this range (12,475 AED/m²).

The local market is growing actively, liquidity is high, there are many new sales and leases, and prices in the building still have room to catch up with the district’s premium segment.

6. Key conclusions

– VICTORIA RESIDENCY is an active, highly liquid investment product in Al Furjan (Jabal Ali First).
– The price per m² in the building has been growing faster than the market average over the last 2 years, yet the asset still trades below the district’s premium segment.
– Rental yields are consistently around 7% gross (6.5% net), which is above the district average.
– For practical calculations, investors should target an entry price in the range of 11,000–12,500 AED/m² to keep ROI closer to 7–8% per annum.
– The main cap for further price growth is the district benchmark (16–17 thousand AED/m²), but there is still upside potential as rental history in the building itself is established.

Note: rental data is taken in aggregate at district level and may differ from future rates specifically in this building — there are no such rental contracts in DLD yet, so the ROI calculation may be considered “conservative”.