ROI analysis of apartment in Trafalgar Central: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD, the Trafalgar Central building is located in Al Warsan First, master project International City Phase 1, project “TRAFALGAR CENTRAL”. For aggregation and comparative analysis, the following levels are used: apartment (2 bedrooms) in the building — building as a whole — master project — district.

Data volume: The DLD database records 73 transactions for this building (all apartments). For rental analysis at the building and district level, there is a sufficient number of contracts (for 2-bedroom units in this specific building the recent sample is very small; for the building as a whole it is sufficient).

2. Liquidity – sales and rental activity

Transactions for Trafalgar Central have been recorded since 2020; activity increased significantly after 2023. However, for 2-bedroom apartments over the last 12 months there are completed sales, while up‑to‑date rental data specifically for 2-bedroom units is missing — therefore, for the overall picture we use the average across all apartments in the building and the district benchmark.

Rental liquidity is high: in the last 12 months alone, more than 700 lease contracts have been signed within the project, indicating stable demand for long‑term rentals in this segment.

3. Price and rental dynamics over 3–5 years

Price dynamics for Trafalgar Central, 2 bedrooms (AED/m²):
– 2021, Q2: 7,199
– 2021, Q3: 4,614
– 2023, Q3: 5,999
– 2024, Q2: 8,143
– 2024, Q3: 6,173
– 2024, Q4: 7,731
– 2025, Q3: 8,999

For Al Warsan First (master project International City Phase 1) growth is steady:
– 2020: fluctuations from 5,100 to 7,500;
– 2021–2022: mainly 5,000–6,500;
– 2023–2024: growth to 6,200–7,400, the latest quarter above 7,400 AED/m²;
– 2025 (data only for transactions in the early months): range 7,300–8,700, with isolated deals around 9,400 AED/m².

Average rents for the building (all apartments) and the district over the last 3–5 years have also increased:
– Building: from 420 to 650–730 AED/m²/year (2021–2024);
– District: from 420 to 610–720 AED/m²/year over the same period.

4. Comparison of current building and district levels (over the last year)

Average purchase price per m² (last 12 months):
– 2BR in the building: 9,000 AED/m² (current transaction level).
– District (same master project): 8,365 AED/m².

Average annual rent per m²:
– Building (overall apartment mix): 708 AED/m²/year.
– District: 675 AED/m²/year.

Trafalgar Central (all apartments) is slightly more expensive than the district average both in sales and in rentals. This indirectly indicates demand for the new development and, most likely, more modern building specifications.

5. Yield (ROI) for the building and the district

Calculations are based on DLD data for the last 12 months:
– The rental calculations use the full apartment set; sales calculations use 2BR units.

Gross yield:
– Building: 708 / 9,000 ≈ 7.9% per annum.
– District: 675 / 8,365 ≈ 8.1% per annum.

Net yield (including initial costs of ~7–8%):
– Building: ≈ 7.3–7.4% per annum.
– District: ≈ 7.4–7.6% per annum.

6. Fair price range for a 7–8% yield

– If an investor targets a net yield of 7–8% per annum, the fair acquisition price range should be: 708 / 0.08 ~ 8,850 AED/m² to 708 / 0.07 ~ 10,110 AED/m².
– The market level (9,000 AED/m²) lies in the upper half of this fair range, meaning that a purchase at the current price can potentially deliver a 7.5–8% yield, assuming moderate operating expenses and no vacancy.

7. Investor outlook

Trafalgar Central is a liquid product in a high‑demand mass segment district (International City Phase 1). The current price level is in the upper part of the fair range in terms of yield. The rental market is stable, and sales activity has increased — both are confirmed by DLD data. A new/recent building commands a certain premium to the market, but its rates are converging faster towards the district’s average.

Prices and rents in the building are slightly higher than for most of the existing residential stock in the area, which is typical for new, good‑quality housing. Price growth over the last 3–5 years has been measured, without signs of overheating. Investment in a 2-bedroom apartment at current market prices offers a moderate “boost” to yields up to around 8%, but further upside will largely depend on the overall market trend in Al Warsan First and International City as a whole. For short‑term flipping, one should not expect a substantial premium; however, this is a reliable level for long‑term income.