ROI analysis of apartment in SAFEER TOWER 2: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the district and data structure

Actual location: SAFEER TOWER 2 is fully confirmed in DLD data as a property in the Business Bay district; the master project matches the district — Business Bay.

Data structure: A total of 191 sale transactions have been registered for SAFEER TOWER 2 over the entire period, which provides sufficient representativeness at the building level, especially with a focus on 1-bedroom apartments (1BR). There is no rental data for this building or its master project in DLD; to assess the rental market, fully verified aggregated indicators for Business Bay have been used.

2. Dynamics of sale prices for the building (SAFEER TOWER 2, 1BR)

Number of transactions by year (1-bedroom apartments):
– 2020: 26
– 2021: 23
– 2022: 3
– 2023: 1
– 2024: 27
– 2025: 6
– 2026: 1

Data up to 2021 show fairly good liquidity for 1-bedroom apartments (up to 20–25 deals per year), followed by a decline in 2022–2023 and then renewed activity in 2024.

Quarterly dynamics of the average price per square meter (2020–2024, 1-bedroom apartments):
– In 2020 there was a significant drop in the average price: from ~11,300 AED/m² at the beginning of the year to 6,400–8,000 AED/m² by year-end.
– In 2021–2022 the average price per m² was in the range of 3,500–5,700 AED/m².
– In 2023 the few transactions that occurred were at around ~5,300 AED/m².
– In 2024 a substantial increase was recorded: the average price per m² by quarter fluctuates from ~5,400 to 12,300 AED/m², with individual peaks above 10,000 AED/m².
– Over the last 12 months the average sale price in the building amounted to 12,539 AED/m².

Conclusion: In SAFEER TOWER 2 in 2024 there is a sharp increase in the average price after a long period of anemia with only sporadic transactions. This strong deviation needs to be factored in when forming investment expectations.

3. Comparison with the district (Business Bay, 1-bedroom apartments)

• Over the same periods, the dynamics of the average price in Business Bay:
– In 2020 — 13,100–16,000 AED/m² (clearly higher than SAFEER TOWER 2).
– In 2021–2022 — 15,000–20,000 AED/m², in 2023–2024 growth to 23,000–25,000 AED/m², with individual peaks above 27,000 AED/m² by 2026.
• Average price per square meter in Business Bay over the last 12 months: 24,860 AED/m².
• SAFEER TOWER 2 has been trading on the market noticeably cheaper than the district average, with a gap of 45% to 100%.

4. Dynamics and distribution of rental rates (Business Bay)

– For SAFEER TOWER 2 and for the master project there is no valid rental data in DLD (not a single contract for 1-bedroom or any apartments with transparent area and rent, when filtered by objective criteria).
– For Business Bay more than 84,000 contracts have been recorded, which allows for a robust estimate of average rent.

Dynamics of the average rental rate in Business Bay (entire residential segment, all apartments):
– From 2020 to 2021 the average rent fluctuated in the range of 700–900 AED/m² per year.
– In 2022 average rates moved up to 800–940 AED/m².
– In 2023–2024 there was a sharp increase: by the end of 2023 the average rent reached 1,200–1,300 AED/m², and for the last 12 months the average value was 1,330 AED/m².
This is an averaged indicator for all residential apartments in the district; there are currently no confirmed rental contracts for SAFEER TOWER 2 itself.

5. Investment yield (ROI) and benchmarking

– For SAFEER TOWER 2 an accurate yield calculation is impossible due to the absence of DLD rental data specifically for this building.
– For Business Bay the current annual indicators are:
– Average purchase price per m² (1-bedroom): ~24,860 AED/m²
– Average annual rent: ~1,330 AED/m²
– Gross yield (ROI) for the district: ~5.4% per annum.
– Net yield, taking into account initial costs of 7–8%: ~5.0–5.1% per annum.

Fair price range for a 7–8% rental yield (benchmark, for the district market only!):
– Fair Price range: from 16,625 to 19,000 AED/m².
– The current district market is significantly above this range; to achieve the target yield, either capital values must decline or rental rates must increase.

6. Conclusions on liquidity, outlook and investment appeal

– For 1-bedroom apartments in SAFEER TOWER 2, sale liquidity is acceptable, but well below the “peak” years and significantly weaker than the district average.
– The building has always traded at a substantial discount to the district — the price difference reaches 45–100%.
– The price growth over the last 12 months is outpacing the market; however, mortgage/rental demand in the building is potentially constrained, as there is a complete lack of valid rental contract history in DLD.
– For an investor, the key challenge is verifying the realistic level of potential rent; benchmarking is possible only against average district rates, not the specific building.
– In Business Bay, yields are below the conventionally targeted 7–8% per annum, which indicates an overheated segment and high competition among landlords.
– SAFEER TOWER 2 remains a “budget” option within Business Bay: price discounts against a backdrop of somewhat weaker rental demand, with potential yield at the market benchmark level of around 5% per annum.