1. Definition of the area and data structure
According to DLD, the actual location of Elitz 3 By Danube: the property belongs to the Al Barsha South Fourth area and the Jumeirah Village Circle master project. This is confirmed by the presence of transactions with exactly this address combination. Further comparisons with market levels are made using the Al Barsha South Fourth area.
Based on the DLD database, the following has been collected:
– 278 sales of 1-bedroom apartments (1BR) in Elitz 3 By Danube.
– Active transaction dynamics starting from Q4 2023.
– In the rental block there are no registered contracts for the building itself or the master project for 1BR apartments over the last 12 months. Rental data is taken for the Al Barsha South Fourth area (there are >27,000 contracts over the last 12 months for all apartments).
2. Sales and price dynamics for apartments
Number of transactions for 1-bedroom apartments in the building:
– The main volume fell on Q4 2023 (74 transactions) and Q1 2024 (145 transactions), after which the number gradually decreases (Q2 2024 — 27 transactions, Q3 2024 — 12 transactions).
Average prices per sq.m in Elitz 3 By Danube (1BR):
– Q4 2023: 16,602 AED/m²
– Q1 2024: 16,431 AED/m²
– Q2 2024: 16,422 AED/m²
– Q3 2024: 16,948 AED/m²
Average price per m² in Al Barsha South Fourth (all apartments, existing residential stock):
– Q4 2023: 12,949 AED/m²
– Q1 2024: 13,013 AED/m²
– Q2 2024: 13,074 AED/m²
– Q3 2024: 13,536 AED/m²
Comparing the values over the last 12 months, the “building is above the market”: the average price for 1-bedroom apartments in Elitz 3 By Danube is 17,480 AED/m², while for the area it is 14,944 AED/m².
3. Rental dynamics in the area
For Elitz 3 By Danube itself and for the Jumeirah Village Circle master project, there have been no confirmed rental contracts for 1-bedroom apartments over the last 12 months. The analysis is carried out for the Al Barsha South Fourth area (for all residential apartments):
The average annual rent per m² in the area over the last 12 months is 1,025 AED/m².
There is positive rental dynamics: from Q1 2023 to Q3 2024 the average rate increased from 745 to almost 900 AED/m², and for recent contracts (Q3–Q4 2024) it has been holding at 900–970 AED/m².
4. Yield (ROI) and investment assessment
Since there are no registered rental contracts for the building itself over the last 12 months, yield (ROI) can only be assessed at the area level. The calculations are based on averaged DLD levels for Al Barsha South Fourth:
– Purchase price (area): ~14,944 AED/m²
– Average rental income: ~1,025 AED/m² per year
Thus, the gross yield (ROI) for the area is: 1,025 / 14,944 ≈ 6.9% per annum.
Taking into account standard entry costs (DLD fee, agency commission, registration and vacancy periods), the net yield can be roughly estimated at about 6.3–6.4% per annum (6.9% / 1.08).
As a benchmark for a “fair price” at a target yield of 7–8%:
– At a rate of 1,025 AED/m² per year, the fair price range for an investor is 12,813–14,643 AED/m².
– The actual average price in the building (17,480 AED/m²) is approximately 20–30% above this range. To achieve 7–8% per annum, either a substantial increase in rents or a discount on the purchase price is required.
5. Market volume and liquidity
The project has shown a high transaction volume at its peak (2023–2024), and the area itself demonstrates a high level of market activity (tens of thousands of rental contracts per year). This indicates liquidity both as a resale asset and in terms of a broad tenant base. However, the yield from buying directly in the new Elitz 3 By Danube project at current prices is significantly below the overall market level for the area according to DLD.
6. Conclusions for the investor
– Elitz 3 By Danube (1-bedroom apartments) is selling at an average of 15–25% above the market in terms of price per m².
– Area dynamics (Al Barsha South Fourth) show stable rental growth, but at current purchase prices the rental yield is below the investment-oriented 7–8% per annum – even if rents rise to new highs.
– To achieve the target yield for the area, entry is required at no more than 12,800–14,600 AED/m², whereas transactions in the building are taking place significantly higher.
– It is not possible to calculate ROI for Elitz 3 By Danube due to the absence of DLD rental contracts; for Al Barsha South Fourth the average net yield is 6.3–6.4%.
On a 3–5 year horizon, the area looks stable with high transaction and rental volumes, but the investment appeal of this particular asset is currently constrained by the high entry price relative to market rents.
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