ROI analysis of apartment in Address The Bay: DLD data and real deals — 06.12.2025 #13411

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to open DLD data, the Address The Bay building is located in the Marsa Dubai area and is part of the Dubai Harbour master project. For the analysis, all transactions and information related specifically to this building for 1-bedroom apartments (1BR) were used, along with a comparison to the dynamics for the Marsa Dubai area.

The database structure provides full granularity both for the specific building and for the wider area. A total of 182 sales transactions for 1BR apartments in this property have been recorded. For comparative analysis, the last 12 months were used, as well as a 3–5 year history of sales and rentals.

2. Sales dynamics and price levels

Average price per m² dynamics for the building (1BR):

– Sales started in Q3 2022 at levels around 30,300–31,800 AED/m².
– The peak average price for the building was reached in Q2–Q3 2023 — about 39,100–40,300 AED/m².
– Over the last 12 months (summer 2023 — summer 2024), the average sale price amounted to 37,373 AED/m² across 12 transactions.
– After the 2023 peak, a moderate correction has been observed — current average deals are closing at 33,000–35,500 AED/m².

Dynamics for the Marsa Dubai area (1BR):

– In 2020–2021, average prices in the area were significantly lower: 12,000–19,000 AED/m².
– A sharp increase began in 2022, reaching 29,000–31,000 AED/m² in 2023.
– Over the last 12 months, the average price in the area for 1BR units is 25,683 AED/m² (more than 3,200 transactions).
– Thus, transactions in Address The Bay are closing at roughly 45% above the area average for the latest sales of comparable apartment types.

Activity in the building over the last 12 months (12 transactions at high price levels) indicates steady demand, but the volume of unit handovers is significantly lower compared to the area’s large-scale projects. Overall sales volume in the area is very high, and liquidity in Marsa Dubai is strong.

3. Rental market: levels and dynamics

For Address The Bay itself and for the Dubai Harbour master project, there are no 1-bedroom rental contracts matching the filters recorded in DLD at the time of analysis (the building may not yet be widely handed over/occupied). Therefore, comparison is only possible at the Marsa Dubai area level and across all apartments for rent.

Average rental rate in Marsa Dubai over the last 12 months (all apartments):

– Average level for new contracts — 1,306 AED/m² per year (around 18,500 contracts — a large and reliable sample).
– In terms of dynamics: at the beginning of 2022, rental rates were about 870–925 AED/m²; during 2023 they confidently exceeded 1,100 AED/m²; by mid-2024 they have been holding at 1,200–1,300 AED/m².
– There is no separate breakdown specifically for 1BR units in Address The Bay — benchmarks should be taken from the area-wide rental rate for apartments in Marsa Dubai.

4. ROI comparison and “fair price” for an investor

– For Address The Bay it is only correct to calculate ROI at the area level, since there are no rental contracts for the building itself.
– For Marsa Dubai (area-wide, all apartments):
– Average sale price per m² — 25,683 AED.
– Average annual rent per m² — 1,306 AED.
– Gross yield: approximately 5.1% per annum.
– Taking into account all standard entry costs (DLD fee, broker commission, registrations), the effective entry price will be higher by about 7–8%, which reduces net yield to around 4.7–4.8%.
– The “fair price range” for an investor targeting a 7–8% yield is 16,300–18,650 AED/m² for the area.
– Current market prices (25,683 AED/m² for the area and 37,373 AED/m² for the building) exceed this level, which is explained by a premium for liquidity, location status and demand, but does not allow an easy achievement of a 7–8% ROI at today’s price levels.

– Address The Bay is selling at roughly a 45% premium to the area average; the corresponding yield for new buyers will be below the area average (about 3.5% gross, around 3.2% net — assuming their apartment is rented at the average area rate).

5. Conclusions

– Address The Bay 1BR units are an ultra-premium product within Dubai Harbour. Sales are ongoing, but there is no rental sample yet.
– Current pricing in the building is significantly ahead of the area average.
– In Marsa Dubai, liquidity for both sales and rentals is very high. Price and rental dynamics are upward, but the growth rate of the sales “ceiling” is noticeably outpacing rental growth.
– For an investor focused on current income, the prices at which 1BR units in Address The Bay have been sold over the last 12 months do not allow yields above 3.2–3.5% per annum (net, based on current rents in Marsa Dubai). The property has capital appreciation potential given its prestige and segment, but payback is oriented toward premium end-users rather than mass-market investors.
– Without DLD data on actual rents in the building, any yield calculations for Address The Bay remain indicative.