ROI analysis of apartment in Peninsula Two: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: according to the DLD database, the Peninsula Two building is located in the Business Bay district (area_name_en = Business Bay, master_project_en = Business Bay).
The database contains 725 sale transactions for this building, which ensures high reliability of analytics both for the building itself and for the area as a whole.
The analysis focuses on 2-bedroom apartments (2BR). Over the past 12 months, 17 relevant 2BR transactions have been recorded for the building, and the sales dynamics for this unit type can be traced from 2022 onwards.

2. Transaction dynamics and average purchase price for the building and the area

Peninsula Two (2BR):
— Since 2022, the average price per square metre has been showing a wave-like upward trend:
– In 2022: from 17,850 to 20,340 AED/m².
– In 2023 growth accelerated, and by year-end the level reached 23,558 AED/m².
– In 2024 the averages increased from 22,700 to 25,026 AED/m².
– In the first half of 2025 the average price reached 27,427 AED/m².

— The annual number of 2BR transactions in the building: 94 in 2022, 10 in 2023, 26 in 2024, and 17 in the first part of 2025 (the year is not yet complete). This indicates normal liquidity for a residential complex of this scale.

Business Bay district (2BR, residential apartments):
— Over the same period, the average price per m² increased from the 13,800–16,300 AED/m² range (2020–2021) to 22,300–23,900 AED/m² in 2024–2025.
— The growth rate across the district is noticeably lower than directly in Peninsula Two.

Average values over the last 12 months:
— Peninsula Two 2BR: 26,821 AED/m² (17 transactions)
— Business Bay 2BR: 22,830 AED/m² (2,330 transactions)
Thus, 2-bedroom apartments in Peninsula Two are currently selling at roughly a 17% premium to the district’s average market level for this unit type.

3. Rental market: level and dynamics

As of the analysis date, there is no active rental market for Peninsula Two itself recorded in the DLD database (possibly, most apartments have not yet been handed over, the complex is primarily sale-oriented, or rentals are structured through other schemes).

For Business Bay as a whole (residential apartments, all sizes/types, last 12 months):
— The average annual rental rate per square metre in the district is about 1,299 AED/m² (16,354 actual contracts).
— For 2-bedroom apartments specifically, no valid contracts were found over the last year, so the comparison is only at the district-wide level (Flat — all types).

Long-term dynamics for the district:
— Back in 2020–2021, it was possible to rent an apartment for roughly 700–900 AED/m² per year.
— In 2022–2024 the rental market has been steadily growing: first 800–950, then above 1,000, and from 2023 almost every quarter shows further growth, with a slight pullback in 2024. In recent quarters, values have fluctuated between 1,150 and 1,320 AED/m².

4. ROI and fair price range

— The current gross yield (ROI_brutto) for Business Bay is calculated as the ratio of the average annual rent per m² (1,299 AED/m²) to the average purchase price per m² (22,830 AED/m²): around 5.7% gross per annum (excluding entry costs).
— For Peninsula Two specifically, the calculation is not performed, as there is no DLD-confirmed market rental level for the building and for the 2BR segment — accordingly, it is not possible to correctly assess the actual ROI and “fair price” for an investor in this building.

— Indicative adjustment to obtain net yield (ROI_net): if we apply standard entry costs (7–8%), the actual ROI for the district decreases to about 5.3–5.4%.
— For a 2-bedroom apartment in Business Bay to generate 7–8% per annum under current market conditions while keeping the average rent unchanged, the purchase price should be in the 16,200–18,550 AED/m² range. The average level in Peninsula Two exceeds this range by roughly 40–65%, i.e. the premium to the “investment fair price” is very pronounced, likely due to the project’s newness and its positioning in the upper price segment.

5. Overall conclusions

Peninsula Two is a modern business-class residential complex demonstrating a stable upward price trend for 2-bedroom apartments (growth of roughly 1.5x over three years). Liquidity is high, and the closed-deal data is fully confirmed by the official DLD database.

However, based on Business Bay market figures, the yield for a buy-to-let investor remains below the target 7–8% per annum, while the premium to the district’s average price for 2BR units already exceeds 17%. Within the complex, investors are paying a substantial markup versus the wider area, which is justified only if the strategy is long-term capital appreciation. If the priority is purely income yield, this segment is currently expensive relative to the district market.

As for the rental market: there are still no real contracts for the building in the DLD database, which means there is either no active rental flow in this tower yet, or it has not yet been reflected in the official state registers.

6. Outlook

Over a 3–5 year horizon, the price growth potential for the complex is above the Business Bay average, but for yield-focused or short-term investors the current entry level looks inflated. For financially conservative investors, the purchase price should be kept closer to 17,000–18,000 AED/m² to reach the district’s benchmark yields.