ROI analysis of apartment in Seagate: DLD data and real deals — 24.11.2025

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD, the Seagate building is located in the Madinat Dubai Almelaheyah area, master project Mina Rashid. The project is registered as “Seagate”. Only the DLD‑verified area was used for the analysis.

2. Transaction dynamics and liquidity

A total of 365 apartment sale transactions (type “Flat”) have been recorded for Seagate since 2020. The highest spike in activity occurred in the second half of 2022, when more than 230 apartments were sold (an obvious market launch phase — most likely off-plan launch and handover). The subsequent transaction frequency is noticeably lower, which is typical for new projects after an active primary sales phase.
Quarter by quarter, the building’s current liquidity is average — deals are still taking place over the last 12 months, but their number is significantly below the peak levels of the launch phase.

3. Price dynamics and price level per m²

For Seagate (all apartments, as there were no separate 2BR transactions in DLD), the following average price per m² trend is visible:
– In 2020–2021, the level remained in the range of 14,700–19,000 AED/m².
– By 2022–2023, there was a steady increase: from 18,400 to 21,500 AED/m².
– Over the last 12 months, the average transaction price is 23,231 AED/m².
– For Madinat Dubai Almelaheyah as a whole (all buildings, Flat apartments), the average price per m² over the last 12 months is even higher — 31,150 AED/m², which indicates the premium‑investment profile of the area and the rapid appreciation of the latest wave of new projects.

The average price per m² in Seagate is 25% below the area benchmark. This is explained by the early sales stage, differences between handover phases, and strong internal competition within the master project.

4. Rentals: rates and dynamics

For Seagate itself, DLD has not yet recorded a single rental contract (which is consistent with practice: the handover and move‑in of new Mina Rashid projects have not yet been fully reflected in the rental market).

Across Madinat Dubai Almelaheyah, the volume of rental contracts is substantial (over 7,700 recorded contracts for “Flat” apartments). Dynamics of average annual rent per m²:
– 2021–2022: 530–635 AED/m².
– 2023: a moderately upward trend, averaging around 630 AED/m².
– Over the last 12 months, the average rate has increased to 879 AED/m².
– Values above 1,000 AED/m² seen in some recent quarters most likely reflect the emergence of new high‑end stock — they should not be treated as a benchmark for the mass segment (one‑off premium deals are possible).

In summary, the valid average rental level at the end of the period is 879 AED/m² for the area, derived from the body of actual DLD contracts.

5. Investment analysis: ROI and fair price for a 7–8% annual yield

Since there is still not a single recorded rental of Seagate apartments (according to DLD), all ROI and “fair price” estimates can only be made at the area level.

– Indicative gross yield for the area (gross ROI):
879 AED (average rent per m²) / 31,150 AED (average sale price per m²) = 2.8% gross per annum.

– Taking into account entry costs (roughly +7%), the net yield will be around 2.6% per annum.

– To achieve 7–8% per annum at this rental level, the “fair acquisition price” for an investor would be in the range of 10,990–12,560 AED/m², meaning the current market is 2.5–3 times above this threshold.

– Even the price in Seagate (23,231 AED/m² — 25% below the area average) significantly exceeds the potentially “investment‑fair” range at 2023–2024 rental rates.

6. Comparison of the building and the area

– Seagate is trading below the average market level for the area, but the current rental market in Madinat Dubai Almelaheyah does not support achieving a 7–8% annual yield for new buyers.
– Price growth for new Mina Rashid projects is noticeably outpacing the growth of rental rates in this area.

7. Conclusions on liquidity and outlook

– The transaction volume for Seagate was very high at the project launch stage; liquidity has now decreased, which is typical for a completed new complex.
– The rental market in Mina Rashid is still underdeveloped; DLD has not yet recorded a stable tenant inflow for Seagate.
– The building is more attractive for long‑term end use than for short‑term investment income.
– Expecting ROI growth driven by a sharp jump in rental rates over the next 1–2 years is unrealistic: trend analysis shows rents lagging behind price growth.
– For a yield‑driven investor, the current price level of both the area and the project is clearly above investment‑justified values.