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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: according to the DLD database, SOBHA DAFFODIL is located in Al Barsha South Fourth, within the master project Jumeirah Village Circle.
Data volume: the database contains 129 sales transactions for this building over the entire period, and 599 rental contracts for this building (project SOBHA DAFFODIL). This amount of data allows for confident conclusions on prices and demand both for the building itself and in comparison with Al Barsha South Fourth.
2. Dynamics of transaction volume and liquidity
Over the past 4–5 years, the number of transactions for 2-bedroom apartments in SOBHA DAFFODIL has been uneven. In some quarters there were only 1–2 deals, with individual peaks in 2021, 2023 and 2024, when activity increased (up to 4–5 deals per quarter). This indicates the presence of a regular resale market in this building, although overall liquidity is moderate, without pronounced spikes or collapses.
3. Dynamics of average purchase price per m²
For SOBHA DAFFODIL (2-bedroom apartments):
– In 2020 the average price per m² was in the range of 4,500–5,770 AED.
– In 2021 there was an increase to 6,090 AED, followed by a slight decline by year-end.
– 2022 was mostly in the range of 4,600–5,770 AED per m².
– From 2023 the trend became more clearly upward: in Q2 2023 the price reached 6,795 AED/m², then slightly decreased to 5,351 AED in Q4.
– In 2024 growth is observed: the average price per m² in Q1–Q2 was about 7,000–6,350 AED, and in Q3 — 7,037 AED.
For comparison, in Al Barsha South Fourth (2-bedroom apartments):
– In 2020 the area was noticeably more expensive (6,600–7,100 AED/m²).
– During 2021–2022 prices grew to around 9,000 AED/m².
– In 2023 the average price in the area reached 10,700–11,500 AED/m².
– In 2024 prices remain within 11,300–12,275 AED/m².
Thus, over the entire period SOBHA DAFFODIL has been cheaper than the area average by roughly 35–40%.
4. Current price and rent levels (12 months)
Average purchase price per m² over the last 12 months:
– SOBHA DAFFODIL (2-bedroom): 7,973 AED/m².
– Al Barsha South Fourth (2-bedroom): 12,876 AED/m².
Average annual rent per m² over the last 12 months:
– SOBHA DAFFODIL (all residential types): 683 AED/m².
– Al Barsha South Fourth: 1,038 AED/m².
There is a significant lag both in purchase prices and rental rates for this building relative to the area averages. Using the area’s price benchmark when analysing SOBHA DAFFODIL is not appropriate; one should rely specifically on the building’s own metrics.
5. Dynamics of rental rates
For SOBHA DAFFODIL (annual rent per m², any apartments):
– In 2020–2022 the average level remained within 450–520 AED/m².
– In 2023 rental rates started to grow — by year-end they had risen to about 600 AED/m².
– In the first half of 2024 the average rental level in the building was 600–650 AED/m².
For Al Barsha South Fourth the dynamics are stronger (especially from 2023): rental levels moved into the 750–800 AED/m² range in 2023 and exceeded 850–900 AED/m² in 2024.
6. Yield (ROI) forecast and “fair price” range
Rough gross yield (ROI_brutto) for SOBHA DAFFODIL based on average values over the last 12 months:
– ROI_brutto: 683 / 7,973 ≈ 8.6% per annum (rounded).
– ROI_net (taking into account transactional and initial costs of ≈7% of the purchase price): 8.6 / 1.07 ≈ 8.0% per annum.
A similar calculation for the area shows a significantly lower yield (ROI_net around 7.5%).
Comparison with the investment fair price range for a target yield of 7–8%:
– For an investor to achieve a 7–8% annual yield, the fair price for an apartment with this rental level is 8,538–9,757 AED/m².
– The actual average transaction price in the building is 7,973 AED/m², meaning the current market is somewhat below the fair “investment corridor” even given real rental rates.
– Achieving a yield comparable to the area is possible even without a discount to the current price.
7. Conclusion: liquidity and outlook
SOBHA DAFFODIL shows stable, albeit not very high, liquidity — sales of 2-bedroom apartments are recorded almost every quarter, and the number of rental contracts is high for a single building. Price dynamics are moderately upward, but the gap with the area in both sale prices and rents remains persistent, which is driven by the building’s specifics and possibly its image/age.
The current yield level for an investor (up to 8% net) is at the upper boundary of the typical range for the area — this reflects the relatively affordable pricing in this building. For long-term investment the asset remains attractive, but the upside potential is constrained by the structural gap with the area; a significant narrowing of this gap in the next 3–5 years is unlikely.
The building stands out with higher yields due to its accessible entry price, but for tenants it offers a relatively budget living standard compared with the newer and more expensive stock in the area. The probability of stable demand and high occupancy remains strong, but price growth prospects are limited by the benchmarks of the coming years.
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