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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to DLD, the Oxford Gardens building belongs to the Al Barshaa South Third district and the Arjan master project. All further comparisons and benchmarks are made against this district and master project.
DLD records show 367 transactions in the building, including 44 transactions for two‑bedroom apartments (2BR). For rental market analysis, no relevant active contracts were found for the building or the master project, so the results for rent, yield and dynamics are provided exclusively at the Al Barshaa South Third district level.
2. Liquidity and demand structure
Over the past three years, 44 transactions with two‑bedroom apartments have been completed in Oxford Gardens — this is quite a high level of activity for a single building, reflecting solid interest and the market’s readiness for resale/investment deals, especially given the limited number of units in a typical tower. In total, the building has seen 367 transactions, which indicates good liquidity in Arjan’s entry‑level/investor segment.
The Al Barshaa South Third district shows a very high transaction volume: in a typical quarter, the number of deals ranges from 1,000 to 1,500, with some quarters exceeding 2,000 transactions. This confirms the high liquidity of the location for both investors and end users.
3. Price dynamics over 3–5 years
For Oxford Gardens 2BR (building):
– In Q4 2023, the average price per square metre for two‑bedroom apartments was around 10,320 AED/m².
– Throughout 2024, prices grew steadily: by Q1 — 11,090 AED/m², by Q2 — 11,565 AED/m², by Q3 — 11,802 AED/m², and by Q4 — up to 13,359 AED/m².
– Over the last four quarters, the average price per m² for 2BR transactions was about 13,928 AED/m².
For Al Barshaa South Third (all apartments):
– At the beginning of 2023 — 11,460 AED/m²; by year‑end — 14,071 AED/m². In 2024, fluctuations are observed in the 12,975–14,279 AED/m² range.
– The district’s range over the last 12 months is around 14,531 AED/m².
Thus, the price growth rate is evident both for the building and for the district, but Oxford Gardens 2BR units are on average slightly below the district benchmark (by about −4% versus the district), which makes it a potentially more attractive/negotiable entry point for an investor at current levels.
4. Unit sizes and price structure in the building
2BR size range — from 108 to 159 m², with an average of 123 m².
Transaction price range: price per square metre has varied from 9,500 to 18,100 AED/m², with an average of 12,086 AED/m².
5. Rentals: levels and dynamics (district level)
The DLD database records more than 52,000 active residential apartment lease contracts in Al Barshaa South Third.
Average annual rental rate per m² in the district:
– Over the last 12 months — 926 AED/m²/year.
– In dynamics: back in 2020–2021, average rents were 550–620 AED/m², followed by a sharp and sustained increase: by the end of 2023 — 755 AED/m², and in 2024 — up to 866 AED/m² by year‑end.
Conclusion: rental dynamics show pronounced growth, with high and consistent demand for rentals as an investment‑class asset.
6. Comparative analysis: price — rent — yield (ROI)
Data for the last 12 months:
– Average 2BR transaction price in Oxford Gardens — 13,928 AED/m².
– District average price — 14,531 AED/m².
– Average rental rate in the district — 926 AED/m²/year (for the entire residential rental stock).
ROI calculation:
– Gross before costs (district level): 926 / 14,531 ≈ 6.4% per annum.
– For Oxford Gardens 2BR units: 926 / 13,928 ≈ 6.7% per annum.
Adjustment for acquisition costs (DLD fee, broker, other — 7%):
– Net ROI for the district ≈ 6% per annum.
– Net ROI for Oxford Gardens 2BR ≈ 6.3% per annum.
7. Fair price range for a 7–8% annual yield
For an investor targeting a 7–8% annual return, the fair purchase price range at current rental levels (926 AED/m²) is:
– Lower bound (8%): 926 / 0.08 ≈ 11,575 AED/m².
– Upper bound (7%): 926 / 0.07 ≈ 13,229 AED/m².
The actual market price for Oxford Gardens is above the lower bound but roughly in the middle of the “fair” range, and slightly below the district average. For an investor aiming for a yield above 7% per annum, the potential for further price appreciation is limited; either some discount on entry or a focus on active management and leasing will be required to hit the target.
8. Outlook and conclusions
– Oxford Gardens is a highly liquid project in the actively developing Arjan area; prices have grown in line with the district, and current yields are in the 6–7% range when buying at market price.
– The market is moderately shifting in favour of buyers: prices in the building are slightly below district levels, while tenant appeal is high amid overall rental growth and low vacancy.
– For a long‑term investor, income potential is constrained by current rental levels and does not imply a quick “premium”; further capital appreciation is only likely if the district as a whole continues to grow.
– For a conservative investor, it is advisable to secure a minor discount on entry to bring net yields closer to 7%+.
– There is a notable risk of slower price growth given the significant pipeline of new projects in Arjan.
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