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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to the DLD database, the Kensington Waters project is located in the Al Merkadh area within the SOBHA HARTLAND master project. All further comparisons by area are made specifically against Al Merkadh.
Database structure: As of the time of analysis, the DLD database contains over 889,000 sale transactions and more than 4.6 million lease contracts. For the Kensington Waters project, 426 apartment sale transactions were found (without breakdown by unit type), and for rentals with sufficient parameters (gross area and annual rent) there are 148 recorded contracts.
2. Deal dynamics and volume
Analysis of transaction frequency for the project shows active sales starting from mid‑2022, with peak registration levels in Q4 2022 and in subsequent years. On a quarterly basis, 7–94 transactions were recorded, indicating sustained interest and high liquidity of this new development.
Across Al Merkadh as a whole, the market is also active: the area consistently records a significant volume of transactions in a similar asset class (residential apartments).
3. Price dynamics and level for apartments
The average price per square metre in Kensington Waters has been gradually increasing:
– In mid‑2022, prices were at 16,400–17,200 AED/m².
– During 2023, there was a steady rise to 18,700 AED/m².
– In the first half of 2024, the average price reached ~19,000–22,600 AED/m², with peak values in Q2–Q3 2024.
Over the last 12 months, the average transaction price in the building has been around 21,100 AED/m². For comparison, the average level across Al Merkadh over the same period is about 20,500 AED/m². Thus, the project is trading at a premium to the area of approximately 3% (Kensington Waters is slightly more expensive than typical stock in Al Merkadh).
The area’s price trend over the past two years has also been positive, with stable growth from 18,000 to 21,000 AED/m² on a quarterly basis.
4. Rental data and yield
For Kensington Waters, over the last 12 months the average gross annual rental rate is 1,509 AED/m² (based on confirmed contracts, residential leases only). This is the benchmark for the building itself, and the data is sufficient for calculations.
The rent_psm level for Kensington Waters exceeds the average values for typical new developments in Dubai of a comparable class.
5. Yield (ROI) assessment and fair price range
Based on data for the last 12 months:
– Average purchase price: 21,100 AED/m² (for the building).
– Average rent: 1,509 AED/m²/year (for the building).
The gross yield (ROI_brutto) for the building is 7.2% per annum (1,509 / 21,100).
Taking into account typical upfront costs (around 7%, including DLD fee, brokerage and related expenses), the notional “net” yield (ROI_net) is approximately 6.7–6.8% per annum.
For an investor targeting 7–8% per annum:
– The fair price range for achieving such a yield in this building is 18,900–21,600 AED/m² (calculation: rent 1,509 AED/m² / 0.08 and / 0.07).
– The current market level for the building (21,100 AED/m²) corresponds to a target yield of about 7.2%. At present, an apartment can be purchased either “at fair value” or with a small premium to the market if the target yield is specifically 7%.
6. Comparison with the area
The average market price in the area over the last 12 months is slightly below the level of Kensington Waters (area — 20,500 AED/m²), but without a clear discount position; it can be stated that the project is trading at or slightly above the local market maximum.
7. Liquidity and demand
The transaction volume in Kensington Waters over the past two years is significantly above the area’s average for new projects — this indicates high liquidity and confirmed demand specifically for apartments in this building.
Rental contracts also show stable volumes: 148 residential lease contracts over the project’s history is a solid indicator for a new building, especially against the overall demand structure in SOBHA HARTLAND and Al Merkadh.
8. 3–5 year outlook for an investor
Current dynamics in price per m² and rental rates indicate continued interest from both buyers (many transactions) and tenants (steady demand). The yield level is above the market average, and the price trend is positive. The Kensington Waters project can be viewed as a “market‑liquid” asset at the upper price range for its area; at current prices it is a strong option for long‑term investment with a yield of 6.7–7.2% per annum based on current DLD transactions.
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