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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to DLD data, the GHALIA building is located in the Al Barsha South Fourth area and belongs to the Jumeirah Village Circle master project. This building is recorded in the database under the name “GHALIA”, and the analysis below is based directly on this data.
The volume of historical DLD transactions is quite substantial: more than 580 transactions have been registered for GHALIA since 2020. For rentals in this building and in the master project for the “1 bedroom” type, there are no active contracts in DLD, however, for Al Barsha South Fourth (residential properties in general) the volume of rental transactions is very large (over 117,000 contracts in recent years).
2. Price dynamics and average purchase levels for apartments
Over the past few years, GHALIA (1 bedroom) has seen between 12 and 32 transactions per year. The highest activity was observed in 2021–2025, which indicates high liquidity for investors and end‑buyers.
The average price per square meter for 1BR transactions in GHALIA, after filtering outliers, moved as follows:
– 2020: 5,600 – 10,000 AED/m² (strong volatility),
– 2021–2022: range of 6,900 – 9,300 AED/m²,
– 2023: gradual growth from 8,500 to 10,200 AED/m²,
– In 2024 values reached 10,300 – 12,100 AED/m², ending the most recent completed quarters slightly above 11,000 AED/m².
Over the last 12 months, the average transaction price for a 1BR apartment in GHALIA amounted to 11,067 AED/m².
For comparison, the average level for similar apartments in Al Barsha South Fourth over the same period is 14,084 AED/m². Thus, as of the last year, GHALIA is trading at a discount of roughly 21% to the area’s average market level.
Price dynamics in the area also show steady growth: from 7,800 – 9,500 AED/m² in 2021–2022 to 12,300 – 14,600 AED/m² in 2023–2025.
3. Rental market and yield analysis
The DLD database contains no direct rental transactions for the GHALIA building or for 1BR apartments in the Jumeirah Village Circle master project for the period under review. Therefore, for yield analysis, we use averaged figures for Al Barsha South Fourth, where the sample size is very large and representative.
Average residential rents in the area have been growing steadily: from 520–650 AED/m² per year in 2021–2022 to 800–970 AED/m² in 2023–2024 and above 1,000 AED/m² in the current period.
Over the last 12 months:
– the average rental rate in the area amounted to 1,016 AED/m² per year (across all types of residential apartments).
Since there is no data for the building or the master project, ROI is calculated only at the area level.
4. Yield and fair price calculation
Based on the average area levels over the last 12 months:
– Purchase price (1BR apartments): 14,084 AED/m² (area), 11,067 AED/m² (GHALIA).
– Rental rate: 1,016 AED/m²/year (area).
Gross yield (ROI) for the area: around 7.2% per annum (1,016 / 14,084).
If we take the current entry level for GHALIA (in the absence of rental data), the yield by analogy would be higher: approximately 9.2%.
After adjusting for standard transactional and related costs (7–8% of the entry price), the expected “net” yield (ROI_net) for the area is about 6.7–6.8% per annum, while for GHALIA it could theoretically reach 8.5–8.6% under conditions of stable leasing at the area rental rate.
The “investment‑fair” purchase range for an investor targeting a 7–8% annual yield, given current area rental rates, is:
– 12,700 – 14,500 AED/m² (calculation: 1,016 / 0.08 and 1,016 / 0.07).
Today GHALIA is trading within this corridor, even with a small discount, which makes the asset attractive for investors.
5. Overall conclusions on liquidity and outlook
The number of transactions in GHALIA per year and in total over the entire period indicates stable demand and high liquidity in the resale market. In recent years, prices have been growing at an average pace compared with the area, while GHALIA is selling slightly below the market, which increases potential rental yield.
There is currently no DLD rental data specifically for this building, but the large‑scale statistics for the area allow us to confidently extrapolate the key yield parameters.
Recommendations:
For an investor, purchasing a 1BR apartment in GHALIA looks attractive in terms of the price‑to‑potential‑yield ratio (even at conservative area rental rates), especially given the discount to average market prices and the positive price dynamics. With a target yield of 7–8%, the range of a “fair investment price” broadly matches the market, so a significant discount to current prices is not required.
The market in the area and in the building itself remains quite active, and the steady dynamics of transactions and rental growth support the attractiveness of this type of investment over a 3–5 year horizon.
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