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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to DLD, the Elitz 2 By Danube project belongs to the Al Barsha South Fourth area, master project Jumeirah Village Circle. The analysis will be based on this area and master project.
Deal structure: According to DLD, 338 transactions with 1-bedroom apartments (1BR) have been recorded for this project. There are currently no rental contracts in the database for this building and the master project; the subsequent rental analysis is provided only for the Al Barsha South Fourth area.
2. Sales dynamics for the building and the area
Transaction frequency:
The bulk of 1BR transactions in Elitz 2 By Danube occurred in the second half of 2023 (211 in Q4 and 71 in Q3 2023, followed by a decline — 30 in Q1 2024 and fewer than 15 in each of the subsequent quarters up to Q3 2024).
Average price per m² dynamics:
The average price per m² for 1BR in Elitz 2 By Danube has remained stable in the range of 16,150–16,800 AED/m² from summer 2023 to date (within a ±2% fluctuation). Over the last 12 months, the average was 16,268 AED/m².
Area benchmark (Al Barsha South Fourth, 1BR): over the past 4 years, the price per m² has steadily increased from ~8,000–9,500 AED/m² (2020–2022) to >12,800 AED/m² in 2024. Over the last 12 months, the average was 14,275 AED/m², which is about 12% lower than in the building under review.
3. Market rent and yield
There is currently no rental data for Elitz 2 By Danube and the master project in DLD — the building is new, and rental relationships have not yet been reflected in Ejari.
For the Al Barsha South Fourth area, there is an empirical base of rental contracts (119,380 contracts, all types of residential leases). The average annual rent per m² for all apartments (without breakdown by type) over the last 12 months was ~1,025 AED/m², with steady quarterly growth (for example: 849 AED/m² in Q1 2024, 866 AED/m² in Q2 2024, 897 AED/m² in Q3, and up to 966 AED/m² in Q4).
The absence of specific rental rates for 1BR units may cause minor distortions (smaller studios are usually slightly more expensive per m², larger layouts slightly cheaper), but given the volume and trend, the current area level reflects the real rental market in 2024.
4. ROI (return on investment) and fair price range calculation
• For Elitz 2 By Danube:
‒ Average purchase price per m² in the building over 12 months: 16,268 AED.
‒ No valid market rental data was found for the building and the master project, so ROI for these levels cannot be calculated.
• For the Al Barsha South Fourth area:
‒ Average purchase price per m² (1BR, 12 months): 14,275 AED.
‒ Average rent per m² over 12 months: 1,025 AED.
‒ Rough ROI for an investor: 1,025 / 14,275 ≈ 7.2% per annum, excluding additional entry costs.
‒ Taking into account typical transaction costs (7–8% at entry): the actual effective yield will be lower, in the range of ~6.7% per annum.
A fair price range for an investor targeting a 7–8% ROI based on the area is 12,813–14,642 AED/m² (calculated by dividing the area rental level by the required yield).
5. Liquidity, outlook and comparison
Sales liquidity for the building is excellent: transactions were executed in bulk at the end of 2023, but the secondary market will form as handovers and move-ins progress. The Al Barsha South Fourth area has been showing steady growth in both prices and rents for several years already (price per m² up by more than 30% over 2 years, rents +20% in just 2023–2024).
The purchase price premium of Elitz 2 By Danube versus the area is significant (the building is 12–14% more expensive than the area average), but is explained by its modernity, Danube concept/brand and the class of a new development. The yield in the area is slightly above the Dubai average, but at the premium price level in the building (in the absence of current rental contracts) the likelihood of achieving a yield above 7% will depend on how quickly the new build enters mass leasing.
Conclusion: the asset is investment-attractive in terms of capital appreciation potential and current liquidity; however, the current price premium to the area calls for caution — to calculate yield specifically for Elitz 2 By Danube it is important to wait for real rental data for the building or to benchmark it against newly completed projects in the same area/master project.
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