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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to DLD data, Bahar 1 is located in the Marsa Dubai area, master project Jumeriah Beach Residence – JBR. The analysis focuses on 2-bedroom apartments (2BR), using the filter building_name_en = ‘Bahar 1’ and rooms_en = ‘2 b/r’.
For sales of 2-bedroom apartments in Bahar 1, 213 transactions have been recorded; in Marsa Dubai as a whole – 18,615 transactions, which indicates high overall market liquidity.
For rentals of 2-bedroom apartments in Bahar 1 and even at the master-project level, there are no current DLD contracts in the database. However, across Marsa Dubai there are more than 115,000 valid rental contracts for all residential apartments over the entire period, and these are used for the subsequent yield analysis.
2. Dynamics and structure of transactions in Bahar 1 and Marsa Dubai
Frequency and dynamics of sales:
– In Bahar 1, 2BR transactions have been evenly distributed over recent years: 8–22 deals per quarter from 2022 to date, reflecting steady demand and active resales.
– For Marsa Dubai overall, volumes are consistently high: from 700 to 1,200 2BR transactions per quarter — this is the largest district in Dubai by number of deals.
Dynamics of average price per m² (Bahar 1, 2BR):
– At the beginning of 2020, the average price per m² was around 8,400–9,000 AED.
– In 2021 there was a gradual increase, with averages of 8,800–10,500 AED.
– In 2022 a price jump from 9,300 to 14,100 AED: almost 52% growth over the year.
– In 2023 consolidation at 14,000–14,400 AED, followed by a new rise in 2024: 12,600–15,600 AED by quarter.
– Over the last 12 months: the transaction average is about 17,030 AED/m²; in the last quarter – movement from 13,000 to 15,600 AED/m².
For comparison, in Marsa Dubai (2BR):
– In 2020–2021 the average level was higher – 14,000–20,000 AED/m², followed by rapid growth.
– In 2022 – 19,500–23,100 AED/m²; in 2023 – 24,000–29,000 AED/m².
– Over the last 12 months: the average price for sold 2BR units is 25,770 AED/m², more than 50% higher than in Bahar 1.
3. Analysis of rental rates (Marsa Dubai)
For Bahar 1 and the master project, no rental contracts for 2BR units have been recorded, which is typical for some older buildings dominated by owner-occupiers and resale activity.
Dynamics of average rent across the entire area:
– 2020–2021: 700–900 AED/m² per year (recovery after the COVID period).
– 2022: growth to 950–1,000 AED/m².
– 2023: 1,100–1,260 AED/m².
– 2024: 1,172–1,282 AED/m² by quarter.
– Over the last 12 months in Marsa Dubai on average: 1,307 AED/m² per year (calculated as annual rent divided by area based on valid DLD contracts for all apartments in the district).
4. Comparative assessment and ROI calculation
Level comparison:
– Average 2BR sale price over the last 12 months:
— Bahar 1: 17,030 AED/m²;
— Marsa Dubai: 25,770 AED/m²;
– Average rental level (for the entire area, last 12 months): 1,307 AED/m²/year.
ROI calculation (gross, annual):
– For Bahar 1 (extrapolating area-wide rents, as there is no building-level data): ROI_brutto ≈ 1,307 / 17,030 ≈ 7.7%;
– For Marsa Dubai: ROI_brutto ≈ 1,307 / 25,770 ≈ 5.1%.
After accounting for transaction costs (commissions, fees, registration ≈ 7–8% on entry), effective net yield decreases:
– For Bahar 1: ROI_net ≈ 7.7% / 1.07–1.08 ≈ 7.1–7.2%;
– For the area: ROI_net ≈ 5.1% / 1.07–1.08 ≈ 4.7–4.8%.
Fair price range for an investor targeting a 7–8% annual yield:
– For Bahar 1: 16,340–18,670 AED/m² (calculated from the area-wide rent: 1,307 / 0.08 and 1,307 / 0.07). The current average price lies within this range.
– For the area: 16,340–18,670 AED/m² (the same, based on the average area rent), but actual transaction prices in the area are much higher, meaning that to buy at the area average an investor must either accept a lower yield or negotiate a discount to market.
5. Liquidity assessment and outlook
The Bahar cluster is characterized by high liquidity: stable resales, balanced dynamics, and regular transactions.
The current price level in Bahar 1 is significantly below the area average and is even at the boundary of the fair investment range for a target yield of 7–8%.
Given the ongoing growth in prices and rents across Marsa Dubai, the investment appeal of Bahar 1 versus more expensive new projects remains above the area average even after deducting transaction costs.
Rental liquidity for the building itself is not visible in DLD contracts, but Marsa Dubai is the absolute leader in Dubai by rental volume.
Conclusion: Bahar 1 (2BR) is one of the few assets in Marsa Dubai where yields at today’s entry prices can match typical investor targets (7–8% gross per annum), which is reflected in the average price levels of recent transactions and the area-wide rental rate. A significant increase in current yields is unlikely due to asset prices continuing to grow faster than rents, but the property remains liquid and attractive on a 3–5 year horizon.
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