1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to DLD (Dubai Land Department), Azizi Riviera 39 is located in the Al Merkadh area, within the Meydan One Community master project. This information is confirmed by a direct match of the building name in the DLD database.
Scope of analysis: The analysis focuses primarily on 2-bedroom apartments (2BR) in Azizi Riviera 39 and compares their dynamics with the wider Al Merkadh area for the residential stock (flats/apartments).
2. Sales dynamics and deal structure
Volume and frequency of transactions: Since 2021, there have been 53 transactions involving 2-bedroom apartments in Azizi Riviera 39, with activity increasing, especially throughout 2024. The highest frequency is observed in Q2 2024, indicating growing interest in the new building.
Dynamics of the average price per m² in the building (2BR): Over the past years, the price per m² has been volatile, but the overall trend has been upward:
– In 2021, the average price per m² was around 14,600–15,400 AED.
– In 2022–2023, prices stabilised in the 16,400–17,400 AED range.
– In 2024, there was an increase to 16,500–17,500 AED, and over the last 12 months the level reached around 21,982 AED/m².
– It should be noted that the highest-priced deals have only been recorded in recent months.
Price dynamics in Al Merkadh: Comparative analysis shows that the average price per m² in the area over the last 12 months was around 20,648 AED, slightly below the average for Azizi Riviera 39, which is typical for a new premium building trading at a premium to the wider area.
3. Rental levels and dynamics
Building-level rents: According to DLD data for Azizi Riviera 39 (all apartments, residential stock), over the last 12 months the average annual rental rate amounted to 1,530 AED/m², based on a sample of 155 contracts. This is one of the most up-to-date sources for calculating investment returns.
Rental dynamics in the building: Over recent quarters, rental rates have fluctuated in the 1,300–1,600 AED/m² range, which corresponds to the current market level. Quarterly breakdown for the building indicates rising rates as occupancy increases and in line with the broader trend of growing rental demand.
Area-level rents: The average rental rate per m² in Al Merkadh over the last 12 months is almost identical to the building — 1,524 AED/m², indicating a high correlation with the area and the absence of a pronounced premium or discount in the rental segment.
4. Comparison and yield (ROI) calculation
Current indicators for the last 12 months:
– Purchase price per m² for 2BR in Azizi Riviera 39: ~21,982 AED/m²
– Average rental rate in the building: ~1,530 AED/m²
– Average rental rate in the area: ~1,524 AED/m²
Bruto ROI calculation (annual income before expenses):
– For the building: 1,530 / 21,982 ≈ 6.96%
– For the area: 1,524 / 20,648 ≈ 7.38%
Taking into account typical entry costs (DLD fees, broker commission, registration, etc., totalling 7–8% of the purchase price), net ROI is estimated at 6.5–6.8% for the building.
Fair price range (benchmark for a buyer/investor targeting a 7–8% annual yield):
– For the building: 1,530 / 0.08 = 19,125 AED/m² (8% ROI), 1,530 / 0.07 = 21,857 AED/m² (7% ROI)
– For the area: 1,524 / 0.08 = 19,050 AED/m², 1,524 / 0.07 = 21,771 AED/m²
The current average market price for the building (21,982 AED/m²) is close to the upper bound of the fair range for investors targeting 7% per annum and already above the 8% threshold. This points to a moderately high price level, where further ROI growth is possible if rents continue to rise and demand remains stable.
5. Liquidity and 3–5 year outlook
Liquidity of the asset and the area is high: the number of transactions in the building and in the area has increased significantly over the past 2 years, the pool of actual rental contracts is large, and demand structure is stable. The Al Merkadh (Meydan One Community) area remains one of the more active locations with intensive development and rapidly evolving infrastructure.
The dynamics of both sale and rental prices confirm that Azizi Riviera 39, as a new building, is currently trading at a small premium to the area, while the actual rental yield is closer to 7% bruto, which in the current market is a medium-to-high level for a new high-end product.
Conclusion for the investor: at current purchase levels (around 22,000 AED/m² for 2BR) and an average rent of about 1,530 AED/m², an investor should expect a yield closer to 7% per annum, which is slightly below the “investor maximum”. To reach 8% per annum, either rental rates need to rise or purchase prices need to decline to the 19,000–20,000 AED/m² range. Overall, a purchase targeting conservative yield or long-term ownership looks justified, given the liquidity and stable rental market in this location.
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